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Trump on the bench: the beginning of the end or the best gifts?

Prosecution is usually the death sentence of any political career, but with Donald Trump the laws of gravity don’t always apply. While walking around the courthouse A few hours ago, he didn’t seem defeated, quite the opposite. from afar flutters the crowd, All TV channels liveIt was like it was 2016 again. Trump is flying high in the polls, relishing his favorite role: victim. Is it just a mirage, a last defiant gesture before it finally falls? Or, on the contrary, is this trial a savior for the former president’s multiple political resurrections?

It’s hard to say. On the one hand, it is clear that in the short term, the Prosecutor’s Office gave a new impetus to his campaign. He regained the public and media attention that had cost him. In addition, his accusation led many Republicans, including his enemies, to come to protect him Because a significant part of the party’s voters did not forgive anything else. This sympathy can be measured: his campaign Claims to have collected More than 7 million euros in donations in four days and Same survey What gave him a 14-point lead over his main Republican rival two weeks ago now gives him 29 points.

However, one must look further. The same conservatives outraged by Trump’s parade today may have reason to support another candidate when they go to the polls in the first half of the 2024 Republican primary. The main priority will be to avoid Biden after his first term, and this will force them into a cold calculation: Is Trump the best option? Can you win even if you compete from prison?

Because above the spectacle is the judicial reality: Trump is charged with 34 articles, each of which can mean imprisonment for up to 4 years. His guilt or innocence will be established Manhattan Citizens Jury, a place where he is extremely unpopular (only 12% voted for him in 2020). It’s not the best starting situation, but Trump isn’t just anyone to blame. The former president is already speaking Take the trial to a more “fair” place And his lawyers could try to delay it even before the 2024 presidential election.

An acquittal would be a huge political victory for Trump, and it’s not entirely impossible. Although the prosecutor, a Democratic elected official, is confident that his legal arguments are sound, the issue is complex. She must prove not that Trump paid off several women to avoid revealing their infidelity in the middle of the campaign, but that the former president orchestrated accounting fraud so that his company could cover the bribes. Some experts They believe the legal basis for his conviction is complicated and that the Supreme Court, with its conservative majority, could have the final say.

Of course, it is impossible for any other politician to survive such a scandal, regardless of the verdict. Most would have given up on the nomination just to avoid the embarrassment, bribery and TV circus of being a porn star, but Trump is not like most. The public has already seen it In such or more humiliating situations His popularity with Republican voters has not been seriously affected. That’s why some Democrats aren’t too happy with this prosecution.

This is, for example, Obama’s position as a strategist David Axelrod: “Of all the things Trump is under investigation for, the Stormy Daniels bribe is probably the least important. If he’s going to be prosecuted for anything, it’s probably something he’ll later say that all the charges against him are political persecution. Of course, Trump is doing this, while millions of citizens are wondering why he would be held accountable for this possible crime over more serious crimes, such as staging a coup on January 6, 2022, or attempting to rig an election.

And that’s perhaps the last key: This is Trump’s first legal battle, but it won’t be his last. To mention only a few cases: you are being investigated in Georgia for lobbying an elected official of his party In order to change the counting of votes and win for him, he has opened several cases The attack on the capitol, which facilitatedThe New York State Attorney’s Office is investigating it for business fraud and the Department of Justice To store confidential documents and refuse to return them. Any of these cases can be launched in the new prosecutor’s office before the November 2024 presidential elections.

Whether what happened a few hours ago was the beginning of the end for Trump or the best of gifts, we still don’t know. He has already emerged alive from many scandals, and there are millions of Republicans who are still willing to support him today. Even if I “shot someone on Fifth Avenue”. On the other hand, even they know that running a prisoner gives Joe Biden four more years in the White House. Their future is decided in the elections, but also in the courts. Republicans are set to vote on their nominee next February, but the courts could block it.

Source: El Diario





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