First checked the absolute majority in Galicia, then the triumph of Isabel Diaz Ayuso in Madrid, the (bitter) victory in Castile and Leon, and all indications are that PP will be strengthened in the former jewel of the socialist crown: Andalusia. And before all this happens, the PP has got rid of its old leader, who has become a burden to the party with its series of electoral defeats and is already celebrating the “feiyo effect” that polls highlight. A small footprint from various polls points to the recovery of the central electorate, which the populars lost in favor of the Ciudadanos, and also confirms the wear and tear that Pedro Sanchez blames on after two years of running the pandemic and now having an impact. War in Europe. The coalition government has one year to respond and prevent a change in the cycle that is already visible and could damage its initial cycle, which begins in Andalusia and which continues into municipal and regional elections, leading to a general election. Ones.
“I think there is a change in the cycle with uncertainties, but there are symptoms. “In the first half of the legislature, the government had to deal with issues like a pandemic, but there was no exhaustion (neither the popularity, nor the intention to vote for the PSOE and United We Can), nor did the main opposition party come out,” Lewis said. Orioles, Professor of Political Science at Charles III University. “Now there is erosion against the government against the restoration of PP,” concludes Orriols, who warns that the energy crisis could escalate into a problem such as housing.
However, Ignacio Sanchez Cuenca, a political science professor at Carlos III University, believes that even before people “inflated” inflation, there was a “lack of enthusiasm for the government”, which he said could be due to two reasons. : Absence of electoral mobilization, as it is half of the legislature or “a fundraiser that changes the cycle.” According to him, it is too early to draw conclusions.
The truth is that neither the best data on employment for more than a decade, nor the results of labor reform multiplied by indefinite contracts, are reflected in the demoscopy that allows ruling parties to be optimistic. The Coalition is unable to capitalize on the implementation of anti-crisis initiatives, which are also insufficient to contain inflation, which continues to cause trouble. In the executive branch, they argue that this is a conjunctural issue stemming from the Ukraine war, which concerns not only Spain. But the situation thwarted Sanchez’s plans, which had a quiet second half for the legislature, overcoming the pandemic and raising funds for the economy. This road map was broken by the Ukraine war.
In recent days, Moncloa and Feraz have been trying to improve the image of management in public, which – also confirmed by polls – is pessimistic about the duration of the crisis. It was a message Sanchez wanted to convey to his people during a meeting with lawmakers and senators, in which he accused the right of “making noise” in order to “suppress the progressive electorate.” “They know what is being done and they do not want it to be known. That is why they feed the tension, “the socialist leader told them:” We know what the method is, its purpose, what can we do? Do not fall into their trap. We can not play them, we must argue with passion and conviction, without shouting and calm our political action. “Ask to talk endlessly about what is important for the citizens.”
However, Alberto Nunez Feio knows that inflation directly affects the pockets of citizens and intends to make the economy the main axis of his opposition. For the Orriols, the Galician leader’s admission was “very good” in this regard, as he gave a “sense of good thought and management” in the face of Cassado’s Istrianism and hyperactivity. Now, the PP leader’s drift from here to the general election, which in principle will be the end of 2023, is one of the “uncertainties” he sees in a possible new scenario at the national level. “You have to show that this is it: a honeymoon or a change of cycle,” he says.
By this time Feijo’s forms had changed in relation to his predecessor, but not in substance: he had traveled to Europe, where he indicated that funds were blocked, a very controversial statement from Brussels. Under indefinite contracts.
Despite the good progress of the economy, the demoscopy confirms the transfer of voters between the blocs, leading to the addition of more to the left than to the left. This rise in PP and Vox feeds the thesis of a right-wing shift in Spanish voters four years after a censorship petition ousted Mariano Rajoy. The data collected by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) is not convincing, although they point to a slight increase in the self-esteem of respondents in recent months to the right. In the case of Andalusia, it is the largest right-wing movement since 2000. Data collected by El País. While those who enjoy this award are Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, a leader who does everything he can to get rid of the PP and use a moderate profile, even though he came to the council thanks to an agreement with the far right.
“There is a light supporting the right associated with the resurgence of exclusive Spanish nationalism in 2018,” Sanchez Cuenca said. “Those who are more proud of their sense of Spanishness have moved to the right,” adds El disorder politico, who believes that Andalusia is a clear example of this phenomenon, which is still “recent enough” to determine whether it is due to it. The right-wingers of Spanish society, but he does not believe that he is a “passenger” either. “Right-wingers have more electoral power than left-wingers, but that does not mean Spain is right-wing,” Orioles said. “What is changing is how we see leaders. Feijóo still has this qualification, which makes him less visible to the right. – claims Carmen Lumbieres, political scientist and UNED professor. PP recovered and returned to the first force in the central electorate, in which he was third or fourth. Add to that, according to Lumbières, “Vox does not cause any fear.” “We do not perceive Vox as a far-right risk, and young people have normalized it,” he said.
Experts see a variety of causes in government erosion. “The government is constantly overwhelmed by events such as the energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and economic hardship. The parliamentary majority is falling apart and the unity in the coalition government is getting weaker. During the pandemic years, the PSOE managed to respond adequately with a compensatory policy that alleviated citizens ’rejection. But their ability to adapt to circumstances is lacking today. “This is a government that is going to make things happen and that is always paying,” Orriols wrote in an article by Piedras de Papel.
“Decisions seem to be packaged and they will get them moving forward lately,” said Lumbières, who sees the “international prestige” they boast of in Monclo when it comes to measures such as European foundations or Iberian exceptions. The price limit for electricity generated gas “has nothing to do with it”. “The noise around them and the noise they generate creates a bad pattern of communication,” adds the teacher, who sees the “schizophrenic dynamics” in the PSOE’s action: it must decide who its allies are and pursue all of them. Consequences. “Sanchez Cuenca also argues that Sanchez can not rely on these” hidden “forces:” If the PSOE does this with shame, it is destroying the government. ”
Both Orioles and Lumbières agree, in any case, that Sanchez, seeing everything he has managed, does not experience any particular wear and tear – “this is not proportional disaster,” Orioles explains, even though Yolanda Diaz competes with him in the socialist electorate. “It may be like Julio Anguita, who was most appreciated, but they did not vote,” Lumbieres said. “It is not easy without territorial implantation in small provinces that lose their balance.”
Warnings of a possible change in the cycle also come from this wing amid the tensions that the Confederate space is experiencing. “It is unstructured and it is not a sign that it will be easy. “Podemos does not seem to fit the visible picture,” Orioles said of the second vice president and his plan to expand the Left Front.
Lumbieres also adds PSOE depreciation to areas and another source of depreciation. “The PSOE will only have Valencia as a strong territory and Asturias and others unrelated to Pedro Sanchez,” he told regional presidents. No matter how much fuel bonuses are given back. ”
The next election stage in Spain will be the May 2023 municipal and regional elections. With a few exceptions – the one that took place after 11 million and the petition for knowledge – the local elections were the result of a general election. The Socialist candidate himself, Juan Espadas, tried to mobilize his supporters at the start of the campaign with this very argument: “They will determine the fate of the upcoming municipal elections and, of course, the general elections.” Andalusia will push for a new turnaround. Legislature and this will be in the elections, which will be held in one year, when the course will be more or less determined.
The government has one year to respond and turn the election around. “If you want to review the government, you have to make a political strategy. If he acts with protection, he will not return; “If he goes on the attack, he can come back,” Sanchez Cuenca concluded.
Source: El Diario