According to the Center for Sociological Research, the PSOE would still win the general election if it were held now, and would do so with a margin of 5 points over the PP. The barometer for the month of November shows that the Socialists show no change in their likely vote, but it does indicate that the popular vote has fallen by more than one point since October. Also, according to CIS, Vox will recover a bit after being hit by it, although it can’t handle United We Can.
This is the key data from the November barometer, which was released this Friday. According to CIS calculations, if a general election were called now, the PSOE would get 32.7%, the same figure as last month. This keeps the PSOE in one of the best figures of the series, well above the result achieved by 10N and with a wide cushion over the PP, which surpassed it in July.
Popularity is falling again and is chaining for the third month. For the general election, the lists led by Alberto Núñez Feijoo combined for 27.2% of the ballots, compared to the 28.7% that the CIS estimated just a month ago. Although the data allows him to significantly improve the results of Pablo Casado in 2019, the result now removes him from the fight to win the election and leaves the distance between the two parties more than five points.
Below, Unidas Podemos remains in the third position. The party is down by half a point between one barometer and the next, but remains above 12% of the vote – it has fallen below 10% – and maintains third place, in constant dispute with Vox in each new CIS issue.
Vox manages to recover, but his lift isn’t enough to retake third place. The Santiago Abascal formation fell for months until it bottomed out at 8.8% of the October barometer. Now the extreme right is slightly over 10.1%. They are, yes, five points behind the result they got in 2019, which allowed them to win 52 deputies.
Finally, Ciudadanos remains at 2.5%, a drop of two tenths. Although this is not one of the worst figures in the recent CIS series, by this estimate, Ines Arimadas’ party will have a very difficult time gaining representation in the Congress, where it currently has 10 deputies.
Diaz climbs and Feijo continues to fall
The ranking table of CIS leaders still leaves the second vice president and the minister of labor at the top. Yolanda Diaz gets a 4.9 rating after raising 2 tenths, close to passing. Pedro Sánchez, on the other hand, falls slightly, but remains in second place with 4.42 points. The leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijo, falls behind in the new month and remains with a rating of 4.25 and third place, after managing to lead this ranking in July.
Behind the podium are Más País leader Inigo Errejón, Ciudadanos president Inés Arrimadas and Vox leader Santiago Abascal, the latter once again as the worst-rated politician.
Source: El Diario