This is how the LGTBI collective votes: 60% will support PSOE, Sumar and Podemos in the European elections, while 30% will support PP and Vox.

If the European elections next June were held today and only the LGTBI community voted, the victory would be clear for the left-wing bloc: of the 61 seats that correspond to Spain in the European Parliament, the majority would go to PSOE, Sumar and Podemos. (24, 11 and 4 respectively) while 14 will go to PP and three to Vox. The coalition of Ahora Repúblicas and two other Junts will have the same number of MEPs, according to a poll conducted by 40dB for the State Federation of LGTBI (FELGTBI+), presented this Wednesday.

This is the likely translation of votes into mandates, which would give the left an absolute majority. Thus, Pedro Sánchez’s party would receive 35% of support, followed by PP (21.8%) and Sumar (17.5%). Close behind would be Podemos, with 6.2% of LGTBI voters, and a leg up would be Vox, with 5.4%. The interview was conducted online from February 23 to March 13.

This is the second time that Spain has studied who the LGTBI group votes for, which, according to the CIS, is estimated at 7 to 8% of the population. There are 1.7 to 2 million valid votes. However, it is not clear that everyone will vote in the elections on June 9: the survey shows that even four out of ten LGBTI people (36.8%) are not 100% sure that they will vote.

Absolute majority PSOE-Sumar

The LGTBI community is mobilized, but less so than the general population. The poll, which also asks what would happen if there were a general election in Spain tomorrow, reveals that only 41.3% of LGTBI voters are confident that they will turn up to vote, with the figure rising to 57.2% among others. According to the barometer made by 40dB for the country In March of last year, which the results of the study compare.

In this hypothetical election, if it depended solely on the election of LGBTI people, the current government coalition, PSOE and Sumari, would far exceed the absolute majority by achieving 221 seats. Alberto Nunez-Feijio’s party and the extreme right (with 88 and 11 seats, respectively) could not reach a hundred deputies. The PSOE will have the most voting power, with 34% of support, 3.3 points less than the general population would give it. And it would bring victory to the PP, with 35.2% support, and among LGTBI, 22.1% would vote for the Conservative Party.

Differences are also noticeable between the other parties: one in four people in the group would vote for Sumar (23.1%) and 11.1% for the general population. Vox reports 7.2% of LGTBI people, which rises to 10.6% for the general population.

More leftist

A survey of 800 Spanish adults shows that LGTBI people are mostly left-handed. 45.3% of respondents abstain from 0 to 4, with 0 being the extreme left, compared to 25.9% who do so in the opposite direction, to the right. 17.3% answered by placing it in the center of the table. The study shows that there is no significant difference between the group and the general population when it comes to ideological self-definition, but one characteristic distinguishes them: beyond ideology, LGTBI people vote more for left-wing parties.

In fact, the report reveals that 31.7% of ideologically right-wing LGTBI voters supported the PSOE or Sumar in the last general election on July 23 in a “clear electoral anomaly” as described by FELGTB. Thus, when asked who they voted for in the election, 25.5% of right-wing LGTBI chose the Socialists, while 6.11% chose Sumar, which means that 8.2% of LGTBI voters are right-wing, but they vote for Pedro Sánchez and his formations. Yolanda Diaz, about 150,000 votes. Among those who consider themselves left-wing, almost half (48.65) supported the PSOE, and 36.1% – Summar.

For Ignacio Paredero, Secretary of the State Federation of LGTBI+ Organization, the explanation for this transfer of votes from right-wing ideologically oriented people who end up supporting left-wing forces is that it is “possible” what they are doing “to defend their rights.” In light of the anti-LGTBI attack that Feijo and Santiago Abascal’s parties implemented before the elections. In fact, 64.7% of respondents answered yes to the question of whether they voted 23J to “protect their rights,” while 35.2% did so for other reasons.

By party, the PSOE took almost 30% of the LGTBI vote, followed by Sumari (17.7%), the Popular Party (13.5%) and Vox, which they now claim 5.9% of the group’s voters. And not all political forces are equally visible among the respondents: of the LGBT people, they think that they protect their rights the most is Sumar, of which 55.6% think he is very or fairly loyal, followed by the PSOE (47 .6). %), a party to which, however, 27.2% attribute little commitment and 14.6% – no. Something that 80% of people in the group think about Vox and 70% about PP. Still, there are 17% who say the populace is very or fairly committed to LGTBI rights, and 9.5% who say so on the far right.

Graphics prepared by Victòria Oliveres.

Source: El Diario





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