The scientific calculations are done: to have a realistic chance of keeping the Earth from warming more than 1.5ºC by the end of the century (avoiding the worst impacts of climate change), human CO2 emissions would need to drop by almost 50% to almost zero in 2030 in 2050.
The next step is knowing how. In 2015, the world was equipped with a plan: each country promised to do everything and turn into measures. What happens is that most plans fall short of achieving this goal. The latest UN review indicates that all these commitments add up to about 2.5ºC of warming. The Climate Action Tracker organization evaluates projects from all countries as shown in the chart.
What this review does is analyze whether the plans presented by the signatories of the Paris Agreement are consistent with what the science indicates is needed to achieve the ideal goal of the agreement.
Major polluters are lacking: China, India or Canada have “grossly inadequate” plans. The United States, the European Union, Australia or Brazil are “not enough”. Russia presents ‘critically insufficient’ plan for 1.5ºC target. Below you can see the data by compliance level in more detail.
Shortly before COP27, a group of scientists published a manifesto warning that this goal was de facto unattainable and should no longer be advertised. However, the UN claims that “every bit of quality saves a life”.
Source: El Diario
